The coalition has to save ten billion from 2011 € per year - and still wants to cut taxes. Can it work without tax increase?
It would not be surprising if the Federal Government against the disastrous financial situation and the need to cut from 2011 annual double-digit billions, to the large screws would turn. This includes front office of the contributions to unemployment insurance and subsidies for health insurance. In these areas can be saved generating large amounts. However, at the expense of millions of contributors.
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Why would an increase in social security necessary?
The grand coalition had reduced the rate of contribution to unemployment insurance since 2006 in steps of 6.5 to 2.8 percentage points. As the financial crisis and the resulting increase in unemployment, however, the reserves of the Federal Employment Agency (BA) used up in the current year up to small remnants. Therefore, deliberate Union und FDP schon während der Koalitionsverhandlungen, den Beitragssatz mittelfristig auf 4,5 Prozent anzuheben, um milliardenschwere Bundeszuschüsse an die BA zu vermeiden.
Der allgemeine Beitragssatz für die Krankenversicherung wurde im Juli 2009, ebenfalls von der großen Koalition, auf 14,9 Prozent gesenkt. Entsprechend erhöhte sich der Bundeszuschuss an den Gesundheitsfonds. Die gesetzliche Krankenversicherung erhält 2010 fast 16 Milliarden Euro aus dem Bundeshaushalt. Schwarz-Gelb erwägt nun offenbar eine Deckelung dieser Zuschüsse aus dem Steuertopf. Das könnte im Ergebnis zu höheren Beitragssätzen führen und die geplante Reform der Krankenversicherung vielleicht sogar verhindern, denn sie ließe not be achieved without additional federal subsidies.
In the statutory scheme for the time being threatened no trouble. Given the tight budgets in the coming years, the promised contribution reduction from 2012 but is likely to disappear in the realm of beautiful dreams.
burdened What is the federal budget?
The slump in economic growth (2009: minus five percent) and the slow recovery of the economy (2010: plus a maximum of two percent) federal, state and local authorities have fallen into a severe debt crisis.
According to the November tax estimate, the Federation will be recorded in the next budget year, only 213.8 billion euros in taxes. Or 10.3 Billion euros less than in 2009 and 25.4 billion euros less than in 2008. After the financial planning, tax revenues will be 2013 at the earliest to reach the same level as before the economic downturn. The federal spending to grow next year still up 7.3 percent and the deficit rose to a record high of 85.5 billion euros. That is, 26 percent of federal spending in 2010 will be financed through loans. 2008, this debt financing rate was four percent. The new debt will be offset by other tax cuts and financing the stimulus I and II and the Growth Acceleration Act. The total debt is increasing in Germany in 2010 to nearly € 1.9 trillion. They are 78 percent of gross domestic product (BIP).
Wie können da Steuern gesenkt werden?
Das ist keine Frage der finanzpolitischen Ratio, sondern des politischen Willens. Die FDP drängt auf eine weitere Steuerentlastung zugunsten kleiner und mittlerer Einkommen ab 2011. Die Oppositionsparteien SPD, Grüne und Linke, aber auch Wirtschaftswissenschaftler und Banken warnen dringend vor weiteren Steuergeschenken. Auch die Länder sorgen sich um ihre finanzielle Basis und fordern einen höheren Anteil am bundesweiten Umsatzsteueraufkommen.
Gibt es weitere Sparüberlegungen?
Bundesfinanzminister Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU) hat ab 2011 einen strikten Sparkurs angekündigt. Die Ausgaben des Bundes sollen dann jährlich um a drop to two percent. Concrete proposals will Schäuble present but probably only after the state election in North Rhine-Westphalia in May 2010. In coalition parties will discuss the nationwide reduction of public subsidies and services, including social spending. An increase in VAT exclude the CDU and FDP been categorically. Clemens Fuest, Chairman of the Scientific Advisory Council of the Federal Ministry of Finance, believes the value-added tax increase but a last resort, when the federal budget not with ordinary savings programs can be rehabilitated.
What has the debt brake with all this?
The federal government is under pressure. You can not choose it, whether and how much they will save. From 2011, issues identified in the Basic Law Debt Brake: 2016 will be holding the annual structural deficit to 0.35 percent of gross domestic product. Countries should take no more credits from 2020, apart from emergencies. Federal and state governments are still arguing, as will the structural debt (as opposed to the cyclical debt) is calculated, but to-date, the net borrowing by the federal annually from 2011 to decline by ten billion euros. Otherwise, the budget is unconstitutional. Also, Europe is the German government on its feet. By 2009, the Maastricht criteria (borrowing a maximum of three percent of GDP) are exceeded. An excessive deficit procedure was initiated in Brussels.
TIME online
# By Ulrich Zawatka-Gerlach
# Date 23/12/2009 - 09:45 clock
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